FT-Booth December Survey of Macroeconomists
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts. Figure 1: GDP, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow of 12/18 (light blue square), Survey of Professional…
Calculated Risk: Friday: Personal Income & Outlays
at Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 07:55:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for November.…
Betting on Shutdown: Thanks, Trump!
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today: Source: Kalshi, accessed 7pm CT 19 December 2024.
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY
at Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 04:45:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they…
Canada and Recession | Econbrowser
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nevertheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (eg, here today). And Trump’s threats of…
The US population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024
at Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 02:03:00 PM From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest US Population Growth in Decades The US population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023…
Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales
at Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 08:27:00 AM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report…
Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
at Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021 Existing-home sales grew in November, according to…
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Excerpt: The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing…
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
at Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending December 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims were 220,000a decrease of 22,000 from…