A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series back to 1960 in the…
at Calculated Risk on 1/19/2025 08:14:00 AM The US hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. … 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from…
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at Calculated Risk on 1/18/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. —– Monday, January 20th —– All US markets will be closed in observance…
at Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 07:48:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since…
From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Administration (light blue square), SPF median (green), GDPNow of 1/16 (blue inverted…
at Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 03:31:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. emphasis added From…
CBO released its ten year outlook today. Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey. Figure 1: GDP reported (bold black),…
at Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 12:06:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales…
Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed by the NBER BCDC: Figure 1:…
