“… the turn of the 21st century was a significant inflection point in the US economy. “
A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series back to 1960 in the…
Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year
at Calculated Risk on 1/19/2025 08:14:00 AM The US hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. … 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from…
Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023
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Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025
at Calculated Risk on 1/18/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales. —– Monday, January 20th —– All US markets will be closed in observance…
Calculated Risk: January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing
at Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 07:48:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since…
Administration Forecast vs. FT-Booth, SPF vs. Nowcast
From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Administration (light blue square), SPF median (green), GDPNow of 1/16 (blue inverted…
Calculated Risk: Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range
at Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 03:31:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. emphasis added From…
CBO, Biden Administration, IMF and Other Forecasts
CBO released its ten year outlook today. Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey. Figure 1: GDP reported (bold black),…
Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December
at Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 12:06:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales…
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January
Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed by the NBER BCDC: Figure 1:…