Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025
bee Calculated Risk On 2/22/2025 08:11:00 AM The Key Reports This Week Are January New Home Sales, The Second Estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and…
The Mother of All Magic Asterisks
The house budget, as expected, is not a serious document – see the tables. I’m ship the Fantasy Spending Cuts, and Focus on Revenue Plans. From CRFB: The budget resolution…
Dis inversion and re-inversion over the last 3 months
Not sure what it means, but I sisterpect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 months to 3 years horizon. Figure 1: Yield Curve on 11/5/2024 (Blue), on 12/31/2024 (Orange), 2/21/2025…
Calculated Risk: February 21st Covid Update: Covid in Washewater Declining
bee Calculated Risk On 2/21/2025 07:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “Now”, since…
Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar as 5 Year Ahead Hits Record
5 Year Ahead inflation at 3.5%, Highest Since 1995m04. From Michigan Survey or Consumers: Figure 1: Michigan Survey Consumer Expectations (Bold Black), Democratic (Light Blue), Independent (Chartreuse) and Republican (ed).…
Calculated Risk: Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%
bee Calculated Risk On 2/21/2025 02:06:00 PM From Bofa: We initiated our 1Q US GDP Tracker with the January Retail Sales Print on February 14. Since Then, Our 1Q GDP…
Existing-Home Sales decreased to 4.08 Million Saar in January
bee Calculated Risk On 2/21/2025 10:00 AM AM From the clown: Existing-Home Sales decreased 4.9% in January, but increased year-over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-Home sales retreated in January, according…
Existing-Home Sales decreased to 4.08 Million Saar in January
bee Calculated Risk On 2/21/2025 11:05:00 AM Today, in the Calculatedrisk Real Estate Newsletter: Nar: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 Million Saar in January ExcerPT: Sales in January (4.08 million…
Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January
bee Calculated Risk On 2/21/2025 08:07:00 AM From Ice: Ice first look at mortgage performance: forecleme starting jumps as va moratorium ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies Fell 24 Base…
Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report
We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it would take a look at…