at Calculated Risk on 1/12/2025 10:17:00 AM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since…
From Tillman and Yun, “Gains from Gunboats: US Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia” (2025). Asia, in particular East Asia and the South China Sea, is one of…
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment? For non-farm payroll employment: Figure 1: Change since 2023M12 in nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High •…
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.…
at Calculated Risk on 1/11/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January…
Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024), which means the surprise is about…
at Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 04:05:00 PM A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. … The household survey…
at Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 01:02:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final…
Newly released today. Chapter 1, Four Years in Review and the Years Aheadreviews economic progress over the course of the Biden-Harris Administration and presents the Administration’s official forecast for the…
