Including PPI and nowcast PCE:
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per Eeckhout (2023), T= 12, a=4. PCE deflator for November is y/y nowcast as of 12/11/2024. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, Pawel Skrzypczynski, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Notice supercore inflation is flat, and services supercore down. PPI core is also down for two months.