Calculated Risk: YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

at Calculated Risk on 11/13/2024 08:52:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 4.5% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -2.5% YoY as of October 2024, up from -2.9% YoY in September.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.2% YoY in October, unchnaged from -1.2% YoY in September.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through October) and housing from the PCE report (through September)

Shelter was up 4.9% year-over-year in Octoberup from 4.8% in September. Housing (PCE) was up 5.1% YoY in September, down from 5.3% in August.

The BLS noted this morning: “The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase.”

This is still catching up with private data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.0% YoY in October.