at Calculated Risk on 10/21/2024 01:59:00 PM
After the election in November 2016, I wrote The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full. I pointed out that there were many tailwinds for the economy (heading into 2017) and that most of Mr. Trump’s proposals probably wouldn’t happen like repealing the ACA or deporting 10+ million people. However, as expected, Trump did cut taxes on high income earners.
I also noted in 2016: “The general rule is don’t invest based on your political viewshowever it is also important to look at the impact of specific policies.”
However, I doubt I will be as sanguine as I was in 2016 if Mr. Trump has been elected again.
Although Trump is lazy and incoherent regarding policy (everything is always 2 weeks away – aka “Free beer tomorrow”), he is making many of the same promises again (repeal ACA, deport 20+ million people, cut taxes on the wealthy, raise taxes on lower- and middle-income earners via tariffs). Some of those promises might happen and have a negative impact on the economy.
I’ll write more on the economic outlook after the election.