On the eve of (Trade) Destruction*
The White House has confirmed imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China Tomorrow (Feb 1). Why are tariffs on canada and mexico different than (some) other tariffs? Consider This…
Business Cycle Indicators – Where’s That Recession?
Here are key indicators followed by the Nber’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus Monthly GDP. Seven Days Ago, Dimartino Booth at 13:50, Says it started in Spring/Summer 2024. Heritage’s EJ…
Calculated Risk: Initial Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 2% Range
bee Calculated Risk On 1/31/2025 02:09:00 PM From Goldman: We launched our Q1 GDP Tracking Estimate at +2.6% (Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate at +2.3%. We…
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-Over-Year
bee Calculated Risk On 1/31/2025 10:42:00 AM Today, in the calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-Over-Year A letter excerpt: Freddie…
Personal Income Increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7%
bee Calculated Risk On 1/31/2025 08:30:00 AM The Bea Released the Personal Income and Outlays Report for December: Personal Income Increased $ 92.0 Billion (0.4 Percent at A Monthly Rate)…
Bestent’s 3-3-3 “Plan” in the Context of 2024Q4 Advance GDP Release
Actual hit gdpnow nowcast of 2.3%, q/q ar (sea jim’s post for a discussion) still, achieving treasury Secretary Bestent’s 3% Annual Growth (in addition to 3% deficits and additional 3…
Calculated Risk: Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
bee Calculated Risk On 1/30/2025 07:30 PM PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. Friday:• at 8:30 am et, 8:30 am et: Personal Income…
US Economic Growth Continues | Econbrowser
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted us real gdp grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the fourth Quarter. That’s a little below the historical average…
Visitor Traffic Up 2.1% Yoy; Convention Traffic Unchanged Yoy
bee Calculated Risk On 1/30/2025 03:59:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Closing Out the Year with Dec Visitation of 3.4m Visitors (+0.2%…
Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales
bee Calculated Risk On 1/30/2025 12:55:00 PM Today, in the calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales…