From Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed Sofie:
Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI Inflation (Bold Black), Cleveland Y/Y Nowcast as of 2/11 (Black +), Michigan Survey of Consumers (Red), NY Fed (Blue), Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (Sky Blue) , all in %. Michigan January Reading is preliminary. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, Michigan Survey of Consumers via Fred, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed.
The NY Fed Survey Shows Remarkable Consistency, While Michigan Survey has shown a marked upward swing in the last two months (although the last observation is preliminary). The Three Readings Range between 3% (NY Fed) to 3.3% (Michigan Preliminary). The Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations for January, based on Survey and Market Data is at 2.6% as of mid-January.
My Guess on the CPI equivalent to 2% PCE inflation is 2.45%. In this interpretation, inflation expectations are still about 0.5 to 0.8% above target.