at Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 09:09:00 AM
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in Novemberdown from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are slightly below the Fed’s target on a 3-month basis. Note: There appears to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 2.1%
Core PCE Prices: 2.5%
Core minus Housing: 2.3%