Trump's Economic Team and Tariff-Fest 2025
Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome. Notes: CLOCKWISE FROM Top left: Bestent (to Treasury; Yale;…
(Would'a bone) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
Update to this post. In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump. Notes: Tax increase associated with announced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming a unitary price elasticity of import…
Gdpnow assuming no import effects: Still close to stall Speed
Assume no revision to gdp prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs Did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP? I adjusted the gdpnow…
Browbeating Trump's Bete Noire into Submission via Trade War
Trump can not even do that right. Source: Economist, accessed 3/4/2025, 2pm CT. I'm waiting to see if ontario cuts off electricity… should do wonders for us gdp and inflation…
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% Yoy in February
bee Calculated Risk On 3/04/2025 12:57:00 PM This graph shows Heavy Truck Sales Since 1967 Using Data from the Bea. The Dashed Line is the February 2025 SEASONALLY Adjusted Annual…
Lumber Prices up 7% yoy
bee Calculated Risk On 3/04/2025 02:49:00 PM This is something to watch again. Lord is another monthly update on lumber prices. Special Note: The CME Group discontinued the random length…
Soybeans (again!) | Econbrowser
Deja vu all over again – China retaliates, and again soybeans are on the list. Also a lot of other food items. Some People (The Now Banned Corev) argued against…
Epu on the rise
Epu Through 3/3/2025: Figure 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty (Blue), and 7 Day Centered Moving Average (Red). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No remittances to treasury for a while
bee Calculated Risk On 3/04/2025 08:28:00 AM From Housing Economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No remittances to treasury for a while The Sharp Runup in Short-TERM…
Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates increased in January; Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since 2011 (Ex-Pandemic)
bee Calculated Risk On 3/04/2025 09:38:00 AM Today, in the calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates increased in January ExcerPT: Freddie Mac reported…