ISM® Services Index increased to 53.5% in February
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 10:00 AM AM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services Index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from…
Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 08:15:00 AM From ADP: Adp National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment increased by 77,000 jobs in February; Annual Pay was up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and…
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS INCREASE IN LATEST MBA WEEKLY SURVEY
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 07:00 AM AM From the MBA: Mortgage applications increase in latest mba weekly survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 PERCENT FROM ONE WEEK Earlier, according to…
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
From Econ442, Yesterday's Lecture: Main Impacts• Reduced Immigration (Legal, Undocumented)– Reduced Labor Force– Reduced Consumption– Reduced inflows into Social Security,Medicare Trust Funds• Mass deportation (increase in enforcement,establishment or camps) Ad-axis…
Recession (Betting) Odds Rising
From Kalshi, 10am CT: Source: Calshi, accessed 3/4/2025 10am CT.
The Outlook for Grocery Prices and Eggs (Pre-Tariff)
So much for grocery prices dropping on day one. Some forecasts from ers, TradingConomics: Figure 1: CPI Food-At-Home Component (Bold Black), ers January Forecast (Light Blue Square), ers February forecast…
Adp Employment, ISM Services, Beige Book
bee Calculated Risk On 3/04/2025 07:18:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM et, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will…
Trump's Economic Team and Tariff-Fest 2025
Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome. Notes: CLOCKWISE FROM Top left: Bestent (to Treasury; Yale;…
(Would'a bone) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
Update to this post. In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump. Notes: Tax increase associated with announced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming a unitary price elasticity of import…