A Fed Inflation Credibility Index Under Trump
Using 5 year ahead inflation expectations from the Michigan Survey, not so much erosion in Trump 1.0. Trump 2.0 so far is another story. Figure 1: Bordo-Siklos Measure of Inflation…
“So called Economists at the Fed”
That’s EJ Antoni Talking on Something Called Wealthion at Minute 3:30. It’s a free country (thus far), but really, this guy casting aspersions on other economists’ qualifications are pretty amazing.…
GUESS I PICKED THE WRONG WEEK TO… STOP RECOMMENSION VACCINATIONS
From the Betting Markets (Kalshi.com) Yesterday:
Real Estate Newsletter Articles This Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter This Week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales decreased to 4.08 Million Saar in January • Housing Starts decreased…
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025
bee Calculated Risk On 2/22/2025 08:11:00 AM The Key Reports This Week Are January New Home Sales, The Second Estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and…
The Mother of All Magic Asterisks
The house budget, as expected, is not a serious document – see the tables. I’m ship the Fantasy Spending Cuts, and Focus on Revenue Plans. From CRFB: The budget resolution…
Dis inversion and re-inversion over the last 3 months
Not sure what it means, but I sisterpect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 months to 3 years horizon. Figure 1: Yield Curve on 11/5/2024 (Blue), on 12/31/2024 (Orange), 2/21/2025…
Calculated Risk: February 21st Covid Update: Covid in Washewater Declining
bee Calculated Risk On 2/21/2025 07:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “Now”, since…
Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar as 5 Year Ahead Hits Record
5 Year Ahead inflation at 3.5%, Highest Since 1995m04. From Michigan Survey or Consumers: Figure 1: Michigan Survey Consumer Expectations (Bold Black), Democratic (Light Blue), Independent (Chartreuse) and Republican (ed).…
Calculated Risk: Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%
bee Calculated Risk On 2/21/2025 02:06:00 PM From Bofa: We initiated our 1Q US GDP Tracker with the January Retail Sales Print on February 14. Since Then, Our 1Q GDP…