Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since.
No negative quarters in 2021. I think Mr. Kopits meant 2022. No two consecutive quarters of growth in 2022 (which was Mr. Kopits’ assertion, as late as January 2023, after repeated declarations).
Here the data, as of 2024Q2 annual update.
Figure 1: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized growth for real GDP (bold blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), calculated at log first differences times four. Light blue shading denotes a purported recession. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release/annual update, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
This graph demonstrates why the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee does not put primary reliance on GDP as an indicator of recession. (Note that as of the current vintage, there was no two-consecutive-quarter decline in real GDP; but there was a two-quarter decline in the 1947 period, without a recession declaration.)