Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago)
1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.1%
The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in October.
The unemployment rate is up from 3.4% in April 2023 – and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!
2) Low unemployment claims.
This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.
3) Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP has Fallen Significantly
This graph shows household mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP.
Mortgage debt is up $2.34 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percentage of GDP is at 45.9% – down from Q1 – and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.
4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate Near the Lowest Level since at least 1979
The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process are close to the record low.
5) Household Debt burdens at Low Levels (ex-pandemic)
This graph, based on data from the Federal Reserve, shows the Household Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow).
This data suggests aggregate household cash flow is in a solid position.
Happy Thanksgiving to All!