Not sure what it means, but I sisterpect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 months to 3 years horizon.

Figure 1: Yield Curve on 11/5/2024 (Blue), on 12/31/2024 (Orange), 2/21/2025 (Green), %. Source: Treasury.

Here’s two conventional term spreads (neither of which have inverted), and the vix.

Figure 2: 10yr-3mo term spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr term spread (ed, left scale), both %; VIX (Green, Right Scale). Source: Treasury, CBoe via Fred.

This entry was posted on bee Menzie chinn.

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