at Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 09:16:00 AM
The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%.
Construction employment increased by 25 thousand and is now 688 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
Manufacturing employment decreased by 7 thousand and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 year old participation decreased in September to 83.8% from 83.9% in August.
The 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.9% from 80.9% the previous month.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in September.
From the BLS report:
“The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 million in September. This measure is up from 4.1 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 million from 4.83 million in August. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.7% from 7.9% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.63 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.53 million the previous month.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
Through September 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 45 consecutive months, putting the current streak tied in 4th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth).
| Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 tie | 1979 | 45 |
| 4 tie | 20241 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Current Streak | ||
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%.
This was a strong employment report.