Per Capita Growth under Trump vs. Biden
Growth in the first three years of Biden was 3.0%, vs 2.1% under Trump (pre-pandemic). Figure 1: Per capita GDP in Ch.2017$ SAAR (grey), on log scale. Orange arrow is…
Decomposing the Revision to GDO
One of the interesting aspects of the annual revision is that, contrary to what happens with typical (non-annual) revisions, GDI moved towards GDP, rather than the reverse. Figure 1: GDP…
Betting Markets on the Election, Again
Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)? First, something that popped into my mailbox this AM from…
Business Cycle Indicators – August 2024 and Annual Updates
Still hard to see the recession in (preliminary) August 2024 data. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange),…
Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation below 2%
With August data: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per…
ZeroHedge: “Mystery Of Upward GDP Revision Solved”
“You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet” (9/27/2024). I won’t dissect the non-arguments in the article. I’ll just observe that the GDP annual…
Guest Contribution: “What we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.…
Main Street Agenda town hall meeting in Milwaukee: Inflation
A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 pm at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin…
Misery Index, 2020M12 and 2024M08: 8.0% vs. 6.8%
With latest available data: Figure 1: Misery Index, calculated as simple sum of unemployment rate and 12 month CPI inflation rate. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS…
Consumer Sentiment and Expectations (Rev’d) in September
Upward revisions for both indices from University of Michigan Survey of Consumers: Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Democrats (blue, left scale), for Independents (gray, left scale), for…