Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year
at Calculated Risk on 10/13/2024 09:20:00 AM Due to Rosh Hashana, the US hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 October. … 29 September…
Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Mystery Meat-Special Sauce Approach to National Income Accounting
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4. Source: Anthony and St. Onge (2024). Notice that real…
Calculated Risk: Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Homeowner Insurance Costs “Spike”
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs “Spike”, Especially in Florida • House Prices to Income…
Schedule for Week of October 13, 2024
at Calculated Risk on 10/12/2024 08:11:00 AM The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York…
Wastewater Measure Continues to Decline
at Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since…
Instantaneous Core Prices | Econbrowser
Updated to include core PPI: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core…
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%. Figure 1: GDP (bold…
Contextualizing the Inflationary Impact of the 10%/60% Trump Tariff Plan
I was trying to think about how to contextualize the impact of the Trump 10%/60% tariffs on inflation. McKibbin-Hogan-Noland (2024) trace out the impact of this measure (as well as…
Why So Glum? Sentiment at Partisan Grouping
Michigan consumer sentiment declined, below consensus (68.9 vs 70.9). Why? First, consider a text based index of economic news, compared against consumer sentiment disaggregated by partisan grouping. Figure 1: University…
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.5% YoY
at Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 01:50:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they…