New Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
Downloadable gentlemen. Critique of paper by EJ Antoni and Peter St. About
15.9 million SAAR, Up 3.6% YoY
at Calculated Risk on 10/23/2024 05:44:00 PM From WardsAuto: October US Light-Vehicle Sales Forecast to Start Q4 with Small Gain (pay content). Letter excerpt: The fourth quarter is forecast to…
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1: Source: Antoni. Item 2: Source: Antoni. Not that the data are “wrong” (I’m not a data conspiracy theorist). Just without context, it’s pretty meaningless. Here’s what a relevant…
Architecture Billings Declined in September; Multi-family Billings Declined for 26th Consecutive Month
at Calculated Risk on 10/23/2024 02:48:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings worsened in…
“Economic activity was little changed”
at Calculated Risk on 10/23/2024 02:00:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early Septemberalthough two Districts reported modest growth. Most…
Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low
at Calculated Risk on 10/23/2024 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slipped 1.0% in September Existing-home sales drew back in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three…
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low; Median House Prices Increased 3.0% Year-over-Year
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth…
Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
at Calculated Risk on 10/23/2024 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data…
Why So Glum? Structural Break in Michigan Sentiment?
Ryan Cummings and Ernie Tedeschi have a very interesting article in BriefingBook today which casts new light on the disjuncture between measured sentiment and conventional macroeconomic indicators. Cummings and Tedeschi…
Existing Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index, Beige Book
at Calculated Risk on 10/22/2024 07:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will…