Calculated Risk: YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

at Calculated Risk on 12/11/2024 08:57:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 4.1% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through November 2024.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -2.0% YoY as of November 2024, up from -2.5% YoY in October.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.7% YoY in November, up from -1.2% YoY in October.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through November) and housing from the PCE report (through October)

Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in Novemberdown from 4.9% in October. Housing (PCE) was up 5.0% YoY in October, down from 5.1% in September.

The BLS noted this morning: “The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase.”

This is still catching up with private data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.1% YoY in November.