bee Calculated Risk On 3/06/2025 02:34:00 PM
On Friday at 8:30 am etn, the BLS will release the employment report for February. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%.
From Goldman Sachs:
We Estimate Nonfarm Payrolls Rose at 170k in Februaryslightly above consensus of +160k but below the three-month average of +237k. Alternative measures of employment growth indicated a firm pace of job creation, and we expect continued, albeit moderating, contributions from catch-up hiring and the recent surge in immigration. … We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded base at 4.0%
Emphasis added
From Bofa:
Feb non-Farm payrolls are likely to print at a robust 185k. Government jobs are expected to come in at a slightly smaller than average 25k due to the federal hiring freeze. Given the muted claims data in the survey week, we do not expect doge driven job cuts to be a sizable drag on Feb data. Although, the Copder Than Average Weather Could Pose Some Downside Risks. We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.0%.
• ADP Report: The ADP Employment Report Showed 77,000 Private Sector Jobs Were added in February. This was well below consensus forecasts and suggests job gains below consensus expectations, however, in General, adp hasn't bone very useful in forecasting the BLS Report.
• ISM Surveys: Note that the ism indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (Not the number of hires). The ISM® Manufacturing Employment Index decreased to 47.6%, Down from 50.3% The Previous Month. This would suggest about about 30,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP Report indicated 18,000 manufacturing jobs added in February.
The ISM® Services Employment Index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. This would suggest 180,000 jobs added in the service sector. Combined this suggests 150,000 jobs added, close to consensus expectations. (Note: The ISM Surveys have been way off recently)
• Unemployment claims: The Weekly Claims Report Showed About The Same Initial Unemployment Claims during the reference week at 215,000 in February Compared to 213,500 in January. This suggests layoffs in February were about the same as in January.