Assume no revision to gdp prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs Did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP?
I adjusted the gdpnow growth rates for Q1:
Figure 1: Gdpnow nowcasts for 2025q1 (ed), alternative gdpnow holding import effect of 2/28 to none (blue), both in q/q ar, %. Source: Atlanta Fed and Author's Calculations.
While the implied growth rate for q1 is positive (0.45% q/q ar), it's barely so.
Figure 2: GDP as Reported 2nd Release (Bold Black), February Median SPF (Light Blue Line), NY Fed (2/28) (Blue Square), GS (3/3) (Green Inverted Triangle), GDPNOW (3/3) (Red Triangle), and gdpnow adjusted to to to putit import effect of 2/28 (pink Square), all in Bn.ch.2017 $, Saar. Source: Bea 2nd Release, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Goldman Sachs, and Author's Calculations.