Michigan Survey of Consumers and Yesterday’s Release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters Agree.
Figure 1: Actual CPI Inflation (Black), Michigan Survey (Red), NY Fed Survey (Blue), Cleveland Fed Sofie (Light Blue Square) and Survey of Professional Forecasters (Pink +), All Year-On-Year, in %. Michigan February is preliminary. Source: BLS, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and Author’s Calculations.
From November to February Michigan (Prel.) Change in y/y is 1.8 ppts. For SPF, it’s 0.4 ppts.