at Calculated Risk on 10/30/2024 10:00:00 AM
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 7.4% in September
ending home sales rose in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions experienced month-over-month gains in transactions. Year-over-year, the Northeast and West registered increases while sales remained steady in the Midwest and South.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – jumped 7.4% to 75.8 in September, the highest level since March (78.3). Year-over-year, pending transactions ascended 2.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
“Contract signings rose across all regions of the country as buyers took advantage of the combination of lower mortgage rates in late summer and more inventory choices,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”
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The Northeast PHSI expanded 6.5% from last month to 65.6, up 3.3% from September 2023. The Midwest index surged 7.1% to 75.0 in September, identical to the previous year.The South PHSI improved 6.7% to 89.0 in September, unchanged from a year ago. The West index ballooned by 9.8% from the prior month to 64.0, up 12.3% from September 2023.
emphasis added
This was well above expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November. The NAR also included their forecast:
In the next two years, Yun foresees slower home price appreciation and corresponding increases in sales.
“After two years of sluggish home sales in 2023 and 2024, existing-home sales are forecast to rise to 4.47 million in 2025 and more than 5 million in 2026,” Yun said. “During the next two years, expect a slower rate of growth in home prices that’s roughly in line with the consumer price index because of additional supply reaching the market.”
Yun predicts the median existing-home price will rise to $410,700 in 2025 and to $420,000 in 2026. The annual 30-year fixed mortgage rate will slide to 5.9% in 2025 but then move higher to 6.1% in 2026
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