From Econ442, Yesterday's Lecture: Main Impacts• Reduced Immigration (Legal, Undocumented)– Reduced Labor Force– Reduced Consumption– Reduced inflows into Social Security,Medicare Trust Funds• Mass deportation (increase in enforcement,establishment or camps) Ad-axis…
From Kalshi, 10am CT: Source: Calshi, accessed 3/4/2025 10am CT.
So much for grocery prices dropping on day one. Some forecasts from ers, TradingConomics: Figure 1: CPI Food-At-Home Component (Bold Black), ers January Forecast (Light Blue Square), ers February forecast…
bee Calculated Risk On 3/04/2025 07:18:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM et, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will…
Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome. Notes: CLOCKWISE FROM Top left: Bestent (to Treasury; Yale;…
Update to this post. In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump. Notes: Tax increase associated with announced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming a unitary price elasticity of import…
Assume no revision to gdp prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs Did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP? I adjusted the gdpnow…
Trump can not even do that right. Source: Economist, accessed 3/4/2025, 2pm CT. I'm waiting to see if ontario cuts off electricity… should do wonders for us gdp and inflation…
bee Calculated Risk On 3/04/2025 12:57:00 PM This graph shows Heavy Truck Sales Since 1967 Using Data from the Bea. The Dashed Line is the February 2025 SEASONALLY Adjusted Annual…
