Is a recession still coming?
Despite the lack of coincident indicators SUIPING A RECESSION'S UETTE (we'll see more on Friday), there are plenty of articles now SOURCEFUL and Imminent Recession: “Wall Street Banks say say…
Calculated Risk: Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 07:45:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. Thursday:• at 8:30 am et, the Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims Report…
Home Prices increased 3.3% year-over-Year in January
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 03:25:00 PM Notes: This Corelogic House Price Index Report is for January. The Recent Case-Shiller Index Release was for December. The Corelogic HPI is a…
ADP Private NFP Growth Underwhelms
+77k vs. +141k (Bloomberg Consensus). Using the 2021m07-2025m01 Relationship between ADP and BLS Measures (in Log First Differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108k (although the 95% prediction interval Encompasses…
“Overall Economic Activity Rose Slightly”
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 02:00 PM PM Fed's Beige Book Overall Economic Activity Rose Slightly Since Mid-January. Six Districts Reported No Change, Four Reported Modest or Moderate Growth, and…
Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 11:14:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Ice Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Letter ExcerPT: Property Insurance…
ISM® Services Index increased to 53.5% in February
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 10:00 AM AM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services Index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from…
Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 08:15:00 AM From ADP: Adp National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment increased by 77,000 jobs in February; Annual Pay was up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and…
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS INCREASE IN LATEST MBA WEEKLY SURVEY
bee Calculated Risk On 3/05/2025 07:00 AM AM From the MBA: Mortgage applications increase in latest mba weekly survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 PERCENT FROM ONE WEEK Earlier, according to…
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
From Econ442, Yesterday's Lecture: Main Impacts• Reduced Immigration (Legal, Undocumented)– Reduced Labor Force– Reduced Consumption– Reduced inflows into Social Security,Medicare Trust Funds• Mass deportation (increase in enforcement,establishment or camps) Ad-axis…