A Trade War Interpreted in a Blanchard Is-LM Model
I was promised an all-out trade war by Trump, and all I got a lousy 10% tariff on China, and promises of a concept of a plan for reciprocal tariffs.…
“Trump Administration Want to Un-Fire Nuclear Safety Workers But Can’t Figure Out How To Reach Them”
From NBC. I’m say emblematic of the smash and attempt to repair approach of the Trump 2.0 Administration. National Nuclear Security Administration Officials on Friday attempted to notify some employees…
Real Estate Newsletter Articles This Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter This Week: Click on graph for larger image. • Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low…
Economists, some consumers, Believe y/y inflation will rise
Michigan Survey of Consumers and Yesterday’s Release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters Agree. Figure 1: Actual CPI Inflation (Black), Michigan Survey (Red), NY Fed Survey (Blue), Cleveland Fed Sofie…
Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025
bee Calculated Risk On 2/15/2025 08:11:00 AM The Key Reports This Week Are January Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. For Manufacturing, The February New York and Philly Fed Manufacturing…
Covid in Washewater Moving SideWays
bee Calculated Risk On 2/14/2025 07:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “Now”, since…
Who gave this guy an economics Ph.D. (CONT’D)?
Remember when EJ Antoni Posted on X This Graph: Well, I think a lot of the puzzle has been resolved with new population controls, and the benchmarked nfp, plus taking…
Calculated Risk: Q1 GDP Tracking: Low 2% Range
bee Calculated Risk On 2/14/2025 01:52:00 PM From Bofa: NEXT WEEK, WE WILL INITIATE OUR 1Q GDP Tracker … Emphasis added From Goldman: Following this Morning’s Retail Sales and Industrial…
Nber BCDC and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators for January
In the first set, Industrial Production Continues to Rise (as Did Employment). In the second set, while Civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to nfp concept rose, manafacturing output flat,…
Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in January
bee Calculated Risk On 2/14/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January After Moving Up 1.0 percent in December.…