Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report
We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it would take a look at…
Calculated Risk: Friday: Existing Home Sales
bee Calculated Risk On 2/20/2025 07:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. Friday:• at 10:00 am et, Existing Home Sales For January from…
What-if anything-do re-re-enforcement term spreads mean?
Open Question – We’re not quite there Yet. Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury Term Spread (Blue), and 10yr-2yr Spread (ed), both in %. Source: Treasury via Fred.
No Recession Until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs W/Retaliation)
And CBO’s January Project: Here’s Implied GDP Using the Budget Lab’s Analysis, and the CBO’s Current Law Project: Figure 1: GDP (Bold Black), CBO January 2025 Project (Blue), and Budget…
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% Yoy
bee Calculated Risk On 2/20/2025 03:25:00 PM What this means: On a weekly base, realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in Active Inventory and New Listings. On a monthly basis, they…
California Home Sales Down 1.9% Yoy in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets
bee Calculated Risk On 2/20/2025 12:36:00 PM Today, in the calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% Yoy in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets A…
Record inbound traffic for January
bee Calculated Risk On 2/20/2025 09:49:00 AM This was a new record for imports in January, Eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) at 17%! Container Traffic Gives us an idea…
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000
bee Calculated Risk On 2/20/2025 08:30:00 AM The Dol Reported: In the week ending February 15, the advance figures for seasonally adjusted initial claims were 219,000, an increase of 5,000…
Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed MFG
bee Calculated Risk On 2/19/2025 07:24:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. Thursday:• at 8:30 am et, the Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims Report…
Architecture Billings “Billings Remain Soft To Start The New Year”
bee Calculated Risk On 2/19/2025 04:01:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new commercial real estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Abi January 2025: Architecture Firm…