Ante-Mutua Portoriis EPU | Econbrowser
… Or I wonder how “reciprocal tariffs” will affect economic policy uncertainty measures. Figure 1: EPU (Green, Right Scale), 7 Day Centered Moving Average Economic Policy Uncertainty (Brown, Right Scale),…
Business Cycle Indicators with January Employment
Change in NFP below consensus, but previously months upwardly revised. Big Benchmark Revision (-610 thousand), but even larger-2 million upward-Revision to December 2024 Civilian Employment. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll Incl…
* Reported* Civilian Employment Jumps 2.4 Million (1.5%) (!)
Ie, conservation the footnotes. New Population Controls Results in Updated 2025 Employment Figures (But 2024 Not Updated). Much of the purported gap between NFP (establishment survey) and adjusted Civilian employment…
Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap
bee Calculated Risk On 2/07/2025 01:17:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap Gap A letter excerpt: From Housing…
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
bee Calculated Risk On 2/07/2025 10:53:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A letter excerpt: Note: The tables for…
143 Thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate
bee Calculated Risk On 2/07/2025 08:30:00 AM From the p BLS: Employment Situation Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment Rose at 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0…
Comments on January Employment Report
bee Calculated Risk On 2/07/2025 09:18:00 AM The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up at 100,000 combined.…
Costing Trump Tax Priorities
FROM CRFB, $ 5- $ 11.2 TRN OVER 10 YEARS: Baseline Debt-to-GDP at 2035 is 113%; Low Estimate 132%, High Estimate 149%.
Calculated Risk: Friday: Employment Report
bee Calculated Risk On 2/06/2025 07:48:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from mortgagenewsdaily.com and are for top tiger scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 am: Employment Report For December. The consensus is…
Calculated Risk: Predicting the Next Recession
In that post, I noted that the next recession would be caused by one of the following: • “An Exogenous Event Such as a PandemicSignificant Military Conflict, Disruption of Energy…