As the global economy enters a pivotal phase in September 2024, several key factors are shaping the outlook for major markets. In the U.S., economic resilience continues to surprise analysts. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to 3%, driven by robust consumer spending and a strong retail sales rebound following disruptions in the automotive sector. Despite inflation nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, unemployment is slowly ticking up, with experts predicting a potential credit crunch in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to initiate rate cuts soon, a move anticipated to further stabilize the economy without triggering a recession.
On the global stage, China’s efforts to stimulate its slowing property market are being closely monitored. Industrial metals have seen price increases amid supply chain issues, while crude oil continues to face downward pressure due to demand concerns, especially from China. In Europe, Germany’s regional elections and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain key factors affecting investor sentiment.
Overall, while many markets are optimistic about rate cuts and inflation control, underlying concerns about labor markets and global demand could weigh heavily on growth prospects as the year progresses.