So much for grocery prices dropping on day one. Some forecasts from ers, TradingConomics:
Figure 1: CPI Food-At-Home Component (Bold Black), ers January Forecast (Light Blue Square), ers February forecast (Red Triangle), Arima (1,1,0) forecast (Chartreuse Line). Source: BLS, ers, author 'calculations.
The February 95% Prediction interval includes a 0.2% drop, as well as a 7% increase.
What about egg prices? The ers February forecast for end-of-year is now higher than the January, at 41%.
Figure 2: Average Price of Dozen Eggs (Blue), ers January Forecast (Blue Square), ers February forecast (Green Inverted Triangle), Implied TradingConomics forecast or 3/4 (Red Triangle). Source: BLS, ers, Tradeconomics, and Author's Calculations.
Tradingeconomics forecast is for an 86% increase year-over-yearear, almost double that from ers.
Should Tariffs Stay in Place for Mexican Imorts, One Should Expect Forecasted Grocery Prices to Rise Further.