The house budget, as expected, is not a serious document – see the tables. I’m ship the Fantasy Spending Cuts, and Focus on Revenue Plans. From CRFB:
The budget resolution assumes $ 2.6 trillion of macroeconomic feedback, which press reports have indicated is a result of boosting average annual growth to 2.8 percent from a projected 1.8 percent. If one were to assume the house budget’s $ 2.6 trillion of economic feedback from 2.8 percent average annual growth and $ 3.3 trillion of just deficit increases, debt would reach 105 percent of GDP at 2034 and the deficit would total 5.6 percent of GDP in 2034.
Here’s a comparison of various estimates compared to the house plan’s estimate.
Notes: Modified by author to match current estimates of dynamic responses. Source: CRFB.
The assumed dynamic feedback requires a tremendous supply side response. To see how this alternative worldview compares to CBO Current Law Project, See Figure 1.
Figure 1: GDP (Bold Black), CBO Project (Light Blue), House Budget Assumed Growth (Red), All in Bn.ch.2017 $ Saar. Source: Bea Advance, Cbo January 2025, and Author’s Calculations.
It’s not surprising that the plan is so crazy. Clearly, it’s a linear descendent of the RSG document.