Top of my list:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/3/2025.
Would this be bad news? Well, yes. But worse yet given the incoming administration. For proof, I have but one word: “bleach”.
Second:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/3/2025.
For comparison, the June 2024 CBO Economic Outlook update projected $42.9 trillion gross Federal debt by end of FY2028 (September 2028). That means bettors think Trump will raise deficits by about $3.5 trillion relative to baseline.
Figure 1: Gross Federal debt (black), CBO projection under current law (light blue squares), implied by Kalshi 1/3/2025 (orange square). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates. Source: Treasury via FRED, CBO, Kalshi 1/3/2025.
Remember, that’s over 4 years. A Bloomberg tabulation of Trump promises placed the cost at $11 trillion over ten years.