![“southern California [sic] is about as dry as Wisconsin and Michigan”](https://calpotnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/ca_wi_pdsidiffpix-150x150.png)
Inventory down 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 23.6% Year-over-year
at Calculated Risk on 1/13/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or…
Calculated Risk: Sunday Night Futures
at Calculated Risk on 1/12/2025 06:45:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500…
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (assuming nothing else happens in January)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: Notes: Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year’s billion-dollar disasters, with colored lines showing 2024 (red) and the other top-10…
Calculated Risk: January 12th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
at Calculated Risk on 1/12/2025 10:17:00 AM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since…
Pecuniary Benefits of Showing the Flag
From Tillman and Yun, “Gains from Gunboats: US Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia” (2025). Asia, in particular East Asia and the South China Sea, is one of…
Six Measures of NFP Change since 2023M12, Four Measures of Private NFP
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment? For non-farm payroll employment: Figure 1: Change since 2023M12 in nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied…
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High •…
Guest Contribution: “Retrospective on the First Year of Trump’s Second Term”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.…
Schedule for Week of January 12, 2024
at Calculated Risk on 1/11/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January…
Employment in December | Econbrowser
Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024), which means the surprise is about…