bee Calculated Risk On 2/09/2025 08:19:00 AM
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, Grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000 = 100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while institutional planning improved 8.7%.
“Nonresidential Planning Activity SAW Diversified Growth in January, with every vertical experience Positive Momentum,” Stated Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Uncertainty over fiscal policies, ongoing labor shortages and elevated construction costs will continue to be headwinds to the construction sector. However, further monetary easing and the sizable number of projects in planning should support construction spending in the back half of the year. “
On the commercial side, Data Center, Traditional Office Building, and Warehouse Planning Led this month’s gains. Education and Healthcare Planning, Especially on the Hospital Side, supported the institutional portion. In January, the DMI was up 26% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 37% from January 2024, while the institutional segment was up 9% over the same period. The influence of data centers on the dmi this year remains substantial. If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 13% from year-ago levels, and the entire dmi would be up 11%.
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The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
Emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index Since 2002. The Index was at 225.7 in January, up from 213.6 The previous month.
According to Dodge, this Index Leads “Construction Spending for Nonresidential Buildings by A Full Year”. This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025.
Commercial Construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.