If or Today’s Close, the Constant Maturity 10yr-3mo Spread is… 0%.
Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury Spread (Blue, Left Scale), 10yr-2yr Treasury Spread (Red, Left Scale), Both in %; Vix at Close (Green, Right Scale). Source: Treasury, CBoe via Fred.
In the wake of the term spreads failure (so far) to predict the recession of 2024-25, I’m not sure what to make of this. However, when combined with the measured collapse in expectations registered in the U.Michigan and conference board surveys, this all hints at a fast deterioration in perceived economic trajectory.