Antoni Writes:
Remember when gdp contracted under Biden but dems said that wasnt a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president? ATL Fed's GDP nowcast for Q1 just plunged from 2.3% to -1.5% as everyone starts to realize our “Growth” has just bone debt -fueled gov't spending
Well, I don't recall many Mainstream Economists declaring a recession. I certainly didnn't, for two reasons. First, as any sentient Economist knows, recessions are not declared by the Nber's business cycle dating committee solely on the base of two concutive quarters of GDP Growth, but rather personal incomes ex-transfers, employment and other indicators. SECOND, MOST MACROECONOMISTS WERE AWARE (UNLIGE DR. ANTONI) OF THE ANOMALOUS GOLD AMTS DRIVING THE NEGATIVE GDP Growth Nowcast – Here's My 3/3 Commentary. My assessment from 3/4:
Figure 1: GDP as Reported 2nd Release (Bold Black), February Median SPF (Light Blue Line), NY Fed (2/28) (Blue Square), GS (3/3) (Green Inverted Triangle), GDPNOW (3/3) (Red Triangle), and gdpnow adjusted to to to putit import effect of 2/28 (Pink Square), all in Bn.ch.2017 $, Saar. Source: Bea 2nd Release, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Goldman Sachs, and Author's Calculations.
I must confess some confusion as to Dr. Antoni's Beliefs. As argued in this paper with Peter St. Unmistle, the US Economy has been in Recession Since 2022. Recall this graph?
Source: Antoni and St. Ones (2024).
As Far as I Know, Dr. Antoni never declared the end to the recession that allegedly began in 2022. Hence, he should be happy to acnowledge the indication of recession in 2025q1 as vindication.
As an aside, Dr. Antoni has never responded to any queries regarding the construction of the deflator that yields the green line in the figure above (I can not replicate it – see here).