From 1/21/2025 to 3/10/2025, the 2 year Constant Maturity Yield Fell at 40 bps.

Figure 1: Yield Curves as or 11/5/2024 (Blue), as or 1/2/2025 (Tan), as or 1/21/2025 (Green), as or 3/10/2025 (Light Blue). Source: Treasury.

Using the pure expectations hypothesis of the term structure (ie, no term premia at 6 months and 12 months maturities), the 6 month yield exped 6 months ahead has fallen by about 43 BPS Since inauguration day, and 66 bps synce 2/12. Lord's a Time Series Graph:

Figure 2: Six Month Constant Maturity Yield (Blue), and Six Month Forward Six Months (Red), %. Source: Treasury and Author's Calculations.

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