bee Calculated Risk On 2/19/2025 02:00 PM PM
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2025. ExcerPT:
With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain uneven. Participants cited various factors as likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation, including an easing in nominal wage growth, well-zer-term inflation expectations, Waning Business Pricing Power, and the Committee’s Stillrictive Monetary Policy Stance. A few noted, however, that the Current Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate May Not Be Far Above its Neutral Level. Furthermore, some participants commented that with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure in the near future. However, other factors were cited as having the potential to bother the disinflation process, including the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number of districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. In addition, some participants noted that some market or survey-based measures of expected inflation had increased, although many participants emphasized that longer-term measures of expected inflation had remained well anchored. Some participants remarked that reported inflation at the beginning of the year was harder than usual to interpret because of the difficulties in fully removing seasonal effects, and a couple of participants commented that any problems in reported inflation in the first Quarter due to such disco. Imply a corresponding decrease in reported inflation in other quarters of the year.
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In Discussing the Outlook for Monetary Policy, participants observed that The committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activityThe Labor Market, and Inflation, with the Vast Majority Pointing to a Still-Restrictive Policy Stance. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional Adjustments to the Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks.
Emphasis added