at Calculated Risk on 11/01/2024 09:07:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.

Seasonal Retail Hiring

Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

Seasonal Retail HiringThis graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Retailers hired 125 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) just in October. This was lower than last year and suggests slightly less real retail sales this holiday season than last year.

This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 6.4 thousand retail jobs in October.



Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 year old participation rate decreased in October to 83.5% from 83.8% in September.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.6% from 80.9% the previous month.

Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in October.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 million from 4.62 million in September. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.7% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.61 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, essentially unchanged from 1.63 million the previous month.

This is down from the post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through October 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 46 consecutive months, putting the current streak in a tie for 3rd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth).


Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
Year Ended Streak, Months
1 2019 100
2 1990 48
3 tie 2007 46
3 tie 20241 46
5 1979 45
6 tie 1943 33
6 tie 1986 33
6 tie 2000 33
9 1967 29
10 1995 25
1Current Streak


Summary:

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.

This report was impacted by strikes (especially Boeing) and the hurricanes. This makes interpreting this report difficult.

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