Calculated Risk: Yoy Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

bee Calculated Risk On 3/12/2025 08:48:00 AM

Lord are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one fed chair powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over -ear. This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 3.8% yoy.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the yoy price change for services and services less rent of shelter through February 2025.

The second graph shows that Goods prices started to increase year-over-Year (Yoy) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 Due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.2% yoy as of February 2025, unchanged from -1.2% yoy in January.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.0% yoy in February, up from -0.1% yoy in January.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI Report (through February) and housing from the PCE report (through January)

Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in Februarydown from 4.4% in January. Housing (PCE) was up 4.5% yoy in January, down from 4.7% in December.

This is still catching up with private new lease data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% yoy in February.