We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it would take a look at various indices.
Figure 1: CPI (Blue), CPI – Food at Home Component (Brown), and Aier Everyday Price Index (Green), All 2024m01 = 1.00. Source: BLS, AIER.
On eggs:
Figure 2: Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (Blue, Left Scale), ers forecast of January 2025 for End 2025 (Blue Square, Left Scale), Ols forecast based on Price-Lagged PPI Relationship (Red Triangle), All in $, and PPI for Fresh Eggs (Brown, Right Scale), and TradingConomics forecast (2/13/2025) implied ppi for eggs (tan square), all in1991m12 = 100. Trading Economics Futures Price for Dozen Eggs (Blue), and Tradingeconomics Model and Analyst Based Forecast (Gray). Source: BLS, ers, tradingeconomics.com.
No wonder CNN’s poll shows some dissatisfaction with progress in Lowering prices (remember, he made the promise on price levels, not inflation).
