Economic Report of the President, 2025
Newly released today. Chapter 1, Four Years in Review and the Years Aheadreviews economic progress over the course of the Biden-Harris Administration and presents the Administration’s official forecast for the…
Comments on December Employment Report
at Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 09:47:00 AM The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000…
256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
at Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percentthe…
Calculated Risk: Friday: Employment Report
at Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 07:46:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December. The…
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP
at Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 11:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A letter excerpt:…
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000
at Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 08:30:00 AM This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for…
Calculated Risk: December Employment Preview
at Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 08:55:00 AM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and…
100% Tariffs on Goods from Denmark – Doubling the Price of Ozempic?
Per DJT. That’ll show those elitist diabetes/weight-loss drug consumers! Some back of envelope calculations for Wegovy and Ozempic (both manufactured by Novo Nordisk). Current list price, implied given US is…
Rhodium Group: Another Estimate of Chinese GDP Growth
From Rhodium Group (h/t Stephen Nagy): Some alternative estimates from BOFIT (November): The lower bound on the BOFIT alternatives is about equal to Gao Shanwen’s guess about GDP growth. This…
Making Sense (If Possible) of Expected Inflation and the Dollar
Five year breakeven up, dollar up. Figure 1: Five year Treasury breakeven (black, left scale), 5 year expected inflation (light blue, left scale), both %; nominal trade weighted dollar index…