Calculated Risk: Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
at Calculated Risk on 1/21/2025 07:24:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains…
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: Notes: Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year’s billion-dollar disasters, with colored lines showing 2024 (red) and the other top-10…
“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”
That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means… The resolution of the inverted 10-year and 3-month yield curve…
Calculated Risk: Benchmarking the US economy
at Calculated Risk on 1/21/2025 01:07:00 PM Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! But it is worth looking at the current state of the economy. From…
Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.47% in December
at Calculated Risk on 1/21/2025 01:14:00 PM From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring…
150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread
Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I thought it useful to look…
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
at Calculated Risk on 1/21/2025 09:24:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December A letter excerpt: The NAR is scheduled…
Monday Night Futures
Tuesday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value).
The American People on the Incipient Tariffs
From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding”: As the Trump inauguration looms, the…
CBO on the “Trump 10/60 Tariffs”
That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I show implied effects on PCE…