bee Calculated Risk On 2/13/2025 11:00 AM AM
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data Today issued its quarterly report on household debt and credit. The Report Shows Total Household Debt increased by $ 93 billion (0.5%) in Q4 2024, to $ 18.04 Trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s national representative consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics Blog Post Examining Delinquency Rates in the Auto Loan Market.
“While mortgage delinquency rates are similar to pre-pandemic levels, Auto Loan delinquency transition rates remain elevated.” Said Wilbert van der Klawuw, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “High Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Are Broad-Based Across Credit Scores and Income Levels.”
Credit Card Balances Increased by $ 45 Billion from the Previous Quarter and Reached $ 1.21 Trillion at the End of December 2024. Auto Loan Balances Saw A $ 11 Billion Increase and Stood at $ 1.66 Trillion. Mortgage balances increased by $ 11 Billion and Currently Stand at $ 12.61 Trillion. Heloc Balances Rose at $ 9 Billion to $ 396 Billion, Representing the Eleventh Consecutive Quarterly Increase Since Q1 2022. Other Balances, which includes retail cards and other consumer loans, grew by $ 8 billion. Student Loan Balances Grew at $ 9 Billion, and Now Stand at $ 1.62 Trillion.
The Pace of Mortgage Originations increased slightly from the pace observed in the previous four quarters, with $ 465 billion of newly originated mortgages in Q4. Aggregate Limits on Credit Card Accounts increased moderately at $ 98 billion, representing a 1.3% increase from the previous quarter. Limits on Heloc continued to rise and saw an $ 8 billion increase.
Aggregate Delinquency Rates increased slightly from the previous quarter, with 3.6% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Delinquency Transition Rates hero steady for nearly all debt types, excluding credit cards which had a small uptick in transitions from current to delinquent. Transition into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, edged up for auto loans, credit cards, and Heloc balances but remained stable for mortgages.
Emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
Here are three graphs from the report:
The first graph shows household debt increased in Q4. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there was no decline in debt during the pandemic.
From the ny fed:
Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $ 93 billion in the fourth Quarter of 2024, a 0.5% rise from 2024q3. Balances now stand at $ 18.04 trillion and have increased by $ 3.9 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.
The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.
The overall delinquency rate increased in Q4. From the ny fed:
Aggregate delinquency rates increased slightly in the fourth Quarter of 2024. If of December, 3.6 Percent of Outstanding Debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Transition into early delinquency hero steady for nearly all debt types; The exception was for credit card balances, which saw a small uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent. Transition into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, edged up for auto loans, credit cards, and Heloc balances but remained stable for mortgages.
The Third Graph Shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score.
From the ny fed:
The Volume of Mortgage Originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase original, increased slightly with $ 465 billion newly originated in 2024q4. … Credit Quality of Newly Originated Loans was mixed. The Credit Scores of Newly Originated Auto Loans and Mortgages were mostly steady, although there was some deterioration in mortgages, as the tenth percentile score of newly originated mortgage loans declined by six points.
There is much more in the report.