Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000
at Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 08:30:00 AM This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for…
Calculated Risk: December Employment Preview
at Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 08:55:00 AM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and…
100% Tariffs on Goods from Denmark – Doubling the Price of Ozempic?
Per DJT. That’ll show those elitist diabetes/weight-loss drug consumers! Some back of envelope calculations for Wegovy and Ozempic (both manufactured by Novo Nordisk). Current list price, implied given US is…
Rhodium Group: Another Estimate of Chinese GDP Growth
From Rhodium Group (h/t Stephen Nagy): Some alternative estimates from BOFIT (November): The lower bound on the BOFIT alternatives is about equal to Gao Shanwen’s guess about GDP growth. This…
Making Sense (If Possible) of Expected Inflation and the Dollar
Five year breakeven up, dollar up. Figure 1: Five year Treasury breakeven (black, left scale), 5 year expected inflation (light blue, left scale), both %; nominal trade weighted dollar index…
National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, Unemployment Claims
at Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 08:12:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • The US NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed…
Teaching Macro Policy (Upper Division Undergrad), 2025
Iterating towards new readings for Econ 442 (Macroeconomic Policy). Last year I added to the undergraduate course climate change and r*. Thanks for the suggestions I asked for in this…
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in December
at Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 04:15:00 PM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2%…
“The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously anticipated”
at Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 02:38:00 PM From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected…
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December
at Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 01:02:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A letter excerpt: NOTE: The tables for…